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I. American Politics and Policy

I.A. The Fiscal Model

• I.A.29.  2012 Fiscal Model Failure:  A Measurement Problem?  An Assessment.  Prepared for presentation at the 2013 meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, Orlando, Florida, January 4th.
• I.A.28. Forecasting the 2012 Presidential Election with the Fiscal Model. August 1 Update. Article link and Data link.

• I.A.27. Forecasting the 2012 Presidential Election with the Fiscal Model. August 1 Update.
• I.A.26. Forecasting the 2012 Presidential Election with the Fiscal Model. May 24 Update.
• I.A.25. Forecasting the 2012 Presidential Election with the Fiscal Model, November 3, 2011 Update.
• I.A.24. Fiscal Policy, Economic Performance, and Vote-Getting Efficiency: A DEA Ranking of Presidents, 1880-2008, (with William B. Tankersley as first author). Journal of US-China Public Administration. August 2011, Vol 8, No.8, 851-860.
• I.A.23. Forecasting the 2012 Presidential Election with the Fiscal Model, September 7, 2011 Update.
• I.A.22. Forecasting the 2012 Election With the Fiscal Model. Prepared for presentation at the Bucharest Dialogue conference in Bucharest, Romania, November 19-21, 2010.
• I.A.21. Fiscal Policy and Vote-Getting Efficiency in Presidential Elections: A Data Envelopment Analysis, 1880-2008. (with William B. Tankersley as first author). Chapter 7 in Chandrasekhar Putcha (Ed.), Methods of Forecasting American Election Outcome: Studies in Strategies of Prediction. The Edwin Mellen Press, 2010.
• I.A.20. Fiscal Policy, Economic Performance, and Vote-Getting Efficiency: A DEA Ranking of Presidents, 1880-2008. (with William B. Tankersley as first author) Presented at the 2010 meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, Atlanta, January 9th.
• I.A.19. Predicting Presidential Elections With Equally-Weighted Regressors in Fair's Equation and the Fiscal Model (with Charles M. Bundrick). Political Analysis, 17, 2009, 333-340.
• I.A.18. Will Barack Obama Be a One-Term President? tcsdaily.com (March 10, 2009).
• I.A.17. Fiscal Policy in American Presidential Elections: A Simulation (with Charles M. Bundrick and Richard J. Heggen) Simulation, vol. 85, no. 1 (January 2009), 17-32.
• I.A.16. Forecasting the 2008 Presidential Election With the Fiscal Model: The Challenge Met (with Charles M. Bundrick) PS Political Science and Politics,vol.42, no. 1 (January 2009), 23.
• I.A.15. Forecasting the 2008 Presidential Election: A Challenge for the Fiscal Model (with Charles M. Bundrick). Prepared for presentation at the 2008 meeting of the American Political Science Association, Boston, August 29.
• I.A.14. Fiscal Policy as an Explanatory and Forecasting Factor in American Presidential Elections (with Charles M. Bundrick). Presented at the2006 meeting of the American Political Science Association, Philadelphia, September.
• I.A.13. Simulating the Fiscal Model of Presidential Elections (with Richard Heggen and Charles M. Bundrick).  Presented at the 2006 meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, January. View the corresponding tables and graphs .
• I.A.12. Don't Bet the Ranch on the Republicans Retaining the White House
• I.A.11. Deconstructing the 2004 Presidential Election Forecasts:  The Fiscal Model and the Campbell Collection Compared   (with Charles M. Bundrick) PS: Political Science and Politics, vol. 38, no. 2 (April 2005), 255-262.
• I.A.10. Fiscal Effects on Presidential Elections:  A Forecast for 2004 (with Charles M. Bundrick).  Presented at the 2004 meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago, September.
• I.A.9. Fiscal Policy, Economic Performance, and Vote-Getting Efficiency: A DEA Ranking of Presidents, 1880-2000* (with William. B. Tankersley as first author).  Presented at the 2004 meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, New Orleans, January 8.
  • I.A.9.a. DEA Ranking Tables 1 through 3 and Appendix B.

• I.A.8. Can Bush Be Another FDR or Reagan? Published December 23rd 2003.  Tech Central Station.
• I.A.7. Fiscal Policy, Economic Conditions, and Terms in Office:  Simulating Presidential Election Outcomes (with Richard J. Heggen and Charles M. Bundrick).  In Janet K. Allen and Jennifer Wilby (Eds.), Proceedings of the World Congress of the Systems Sciences and ISSS International Society for the Systems Sciences , 44th Annual Meeting, July 16-20, 2000, Toronto, Canada (on CD-ROM, ISBN 09664183-5-2).
• I.A.6. Fiscal Policy and Presidential Election: Update and Extension (with Charles M. Bundrick).  Published in Presidential Studies Quarterly, vol. 30, no. 2, June 2000.
• I.A.5. Fiscal Policy as a Forecasting Factor in Presidential Elections (with Charles M. Bundrick).  Published in American Politics Quarterly, vol. 27, no. 3, July 1999.
• I.A.4.. Fiscal Policy and Presidential Elections 1880-1992 (with Charles M. Bundrick). Published in Polity, vol. XXIX, no. 1, Fall 1996.
• I.A.3. Selected Fiscal and Economic Effects on Presidential Elections (with Charles M. Bundrick).  Published in Presidential Studies Quarterly, vol. XXII, no. 1, Winter 1992.
• I.A.2. Expenditures and Votes: In Search of Downward-Sloping Curves in the United States and Great Britain (with Richard Heggen), Public Choice, vol. 45, no. 1, 1985.
• I.A.1. A Fiscal Model of Presidential Elections in the United States: 1880-1980.  Published in Presidential Studies Quarterly, vol. XIV, no. 1, Winter 1984.

I.B. Other American Politics and Policy

• I.B.33. Combined Forecasts of the 2012 Election: The PollyVote (with A. Graefe, J.S. Armstrong, and R.J. Jones, Jr.).  Forthcoming in Foresight. The International Journal of Applied Forecasting.
• I.B.32. The PollyVote's Year-Ahead Forecast of the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election. (with A. Graefe, J.S. Armstrong, and R.J. Jones, Jr.), Foresight. The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, Winter 2012, pp. 13-14.
• I.B.31. Combining Forecasts: An Application To Election Forecasts. (with A. Graefe, J.S. Armstrong, and R.J. Jones, Jr.). An earlier version was prepared for presentation at the 2011 meeting of the American Political Science Association, Seattle, WA, Sept. 1-4.
• I.B.30. Wither Obama: Reelection or Defeat?
• I.B.29. Predicting the Results of the 2010 Midterm Elections: Judgment, Econometrics, and Prediction Markets.Foresight. The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, Spring 2011, pp. 41-44.
• I.B.28. Presidential Job Approval: Barack Obama and Predecessors Compared. Paper prepared for presentation at the 2011 Meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, New Orleans, January 6.
• I.B.27. A Post-Mortem on "Will the Republicans Retake the House in 2010?". Published in PS:Political Science and Politics, 44,1, January 2011.
• I.B.26. Predicting the Results of the 2010 Elections for the U.S. House of Representatives: Judgement, Econometrics, and Markets". Prepared for presentation at the Bucharest Dialogue conference in Bucharest, Romania, November 19-21, 2010.
• I.B.25. Expert Judgment in Forecasting Presidential Elections: A Preliminary Evaluation. (Alfred G. Cuzán and Randall J. Jones Jr.) Prepared for presentation at the Bucharest Dialogue conference in Bucharest, Romania, November 19-21, 2010.
• I.B.24. Will the Republicans Retake the House in 2010? A Second Look Over the Horizon. Revised September 25, 2010.
• I.B.23. Will the Republicans Retake the House in 2010? This is a "revised and extended" version of a power point slide show originally presented at the American Political Science Association, Washington, D.C., September 4, 2010.
• I.B.22. Will the Republicans Retake the House in 2010? Presented at the American Political Science Association, Washington, D.C., September 4, 2010.
• I.B.21. Presidential Job Approval: Barack Obama and Predecessors Compared. Presented at the March 27th, 2010 Meeting of the Florida Political Science Association, Jackonville.
• I.B.20. Combining Forecasts: An application to U.S. Presidential Elections. (Andreas Graefe, J. Scott Armstrong, and Randall J. Jones, Jr, and Alfred G. Cuzán.). March 16, 2010.
• I.B.19. Combining Forecasts for the U.S. Presidential Election: The PollyVote. (Andreas Graefe, J. Scott Armstrong, and Randall J. Jones, Jr, Alfred G. Cuzán.). October 30, 2009.
• I.B.18. Forecasting the 2008 Election with the Pollyvote. (Andreas Graefe, J. Scott Armstrong, and Randall J. Jones, Jr.) Published in Foresight, Issue No. 12, Spring 2009.
• I.B.17. Forecasting Performance of Regression Models in the 2008 Presidential Election (with Randal J. Jones, Jr.) Published in Foresight, Issue No. 12, Spring 2009.
• I.B.16. Bush the Younger: Another Hoover? October 2, 2008
• I.B.15. Regression Model Forecasts of the U.S. Presidential Election (with Randall Jones, Jr.) Published in Foresight, Issue no. 11, Fall 2008.
• I.B.14. Forecasting U.S. Presidential Elections: A Brief Review (with Randall J. Jones, Jr.) Published in Foresight, Issue no. 10, Summer 2008.
• I.B.13. Forecasting Elections using Expert Surveys:  An Application to U.S. Presidential Elections (with Randall Jones and J. Scott Armstrong).  Presented at the 2007 meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago, August 30th.

• I.B.12. The 2006 House Elections:  Forecasts and Results. Legislative Studies Section of the American Political Science Association, Extension of Remarks, January 2007, Vol. 30, No.1.
• I.B.11. Will the Republicans Retain Control in 2006? (with Charles M. Bundrick).  Presented at the 2006 meeting of the Northeastern Political Science Association, Boston, November.
• I.B.10. A Retrospective on Forecasting Midterm Elections to the U.S. House of Representatives (with Randall Jones).  Published in Foresight.  The Journal of Applied Forecasting, Fall 2006.
• I.B.9. Index Methods for Forecasting:  An Application to American Presidential Elections (with J. Scott Armstrong as first author).  Published in Foresight.  The Journal of Applied Forecasting, February 2006.
• I.B.8. The Pollyvote:  Applying the Combination Principle in Forecasting to the 2004 Presidential Election (with J. Scott Armstrong and Randall J. Jones, Jr.).  Presented at the 25th Symposium on Forecasting, San Antonio, June 14, 2005.
• I.B.7. How We Computed the Pollyvote (with J. Scott Armstrong and Randall J. Jones, Jr.).  Published in Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, vol. 1, no. 1, 2005.
• I.B.6. Appropriators versus Expropriators: The Political Economy of Water in the West.  Published in Water Rights: Scarce Resource Allocation, Bureaucracy, and the Environment, Cambridge: Ballinger Publishing Company, 1983.
• I.B.5. The Political Economy of Ports in the United States and Great Britain.  Published in Coastal Zone Management Journal, vol. 11, no. 3, 1983.
• I.B.4. Towards a Property Oriented System for Beach Management.  1983.
• I.B.3. The Appropriation of Shifting Sands: A Case for Transferring Institutions From the Desert to the Coast (with David Fischer and Gregory Stone), Oceans, 1982, 926-930.
• I.B.2. CETA in New Mexico: An Evaluation of the Balance of State Prime Sponsor.  Published in The Idaho Journal of Politics, vol. III, no. 1, June 1980.
• I.B.1. A Critique of Collectivist Water Resources Planning.  Published in The Western Political Quarterly, vol. XXXII, no. 3, September 1979.

II. Political Theory

• II.A.5. Revisiting "Do We Ever Really Get Out of Anarchy?," Journal of Libertarian Studies, Volume 22 ( 2010): 3-21.
• II.A.4. Do We Ever Really Get Out of Anarchy?  Published in Anarchy and the Law, Edited by Edward P. Stringham, Transaction Publishers, 2007.
• II.A.3. Political Profit: Taxing and Spending in the Hierarchical State.  Published in The American Journal of Economics and Sociology, vol. 40, no. 3, July 1981.
  • II.A.3.a. French version published in Problèmes Économiques, 23 Décembre 1981.
• II.A.2. Political Profit: Taxing and Spending in Democracies and Dictatorships.  Published in The American Journal of Economics and Sociology, vol. 40, no. 4, October 1981.
  • II.A.2.a.. Japanese version published in Trends, 1982.
• II.A.1. Do We Ever Really Get Out of Anarchy? Journal of Libertarian Studies, vol. 3, no. 2, Summer 1979, 151-158.

III. Politics of the Iberic-Latin Region

III.A. Cuba and Castro

• III.A.11. Totalitarianism in the Tropics: Cuba's "Padilla Case" Revisited. Cuban Affairs. Quarterly Electronic Journal, 2012, (73).
• III.A.10. Cuba's Ranking in the Fitzgibbon Democracy Surveys: Reflecting a Leftist Bias?  Cuban Affairs Quarterly Electronic Journal, vol. 2, April 2007.
• III.A.9. A Review of Inside the Cuban Revolution.  Fidel Castro and the Cuban Underground, by Julia E. Sweig. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2002.  Completed September 29th, 2006.

• III.A.8. Franco's Spain and Castro's Cuba: Parallels and Contrasts, Cuba in Transition, Volume 14.  Papers and Proceedings of the Fourteenth Annual Meeting of the Association for the Study of Cuban Economy (ASCE), Miami, Florida, August 5-7, 2004.
• III.A.7. Franco and Castro:  Loyalist vs. Revolutionary?, Cuba in Transition, Volume 13.  Papers and Proceedings of the Thirteenth Annual Meeting of the Association for the Study of Cuban Economy (ASCE), Coral Gables, Florida, August 7-9, 2003.
• III.A.6. Comments on Inside Civil Society: An Empirical Study in Cuba of Opinions Among Members of Independent Groups on Problems and Prospects for Democratization, by The Center for the Study of a National Option (CEON) , Cuba in Transition, Volume 11, Papers and Proceedings of the Eleventh Annual Meeting of the Association for the Study of Cuban Economy (ASCE), Miami, Florida, August 2-4, 2001.
• III.A.5. Constitutional Framework for a Free Cuba , Cuba in Transition, Volume 10, Papers and Proceedings of the Tenth Annual Meeting for the Association for the Study of Cuban Economy (ASCE), Miami, Florida, August 3-5, 2000. 
• III.A.4. Fidel Castro: A Machiavellian Prince? , Cuba in Transition, Volume 9, Papers and Proceedings of the Ninth Annual Meeting of the Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy (ASCE), Biltmore Hotel, Coral Gables, Florida, August 12-14, 1999.
• III.A.3. Is Fidel Castro a Machiavellian Prince? Miami: The Endowment for Cuban American Studies, 1999.
• III.A.2. Castro's "Revolutionary" Despotism.  Published in Freedom at Issue, no. 57, September-October 1980.
• III.A.1. . "’Revolutionary’ Facism.   A Review of Persona Non Grata, by Jorge Edwards,”  The Libertarian Forum, January - February 1980.

III.B. Other Latin American Politics

• III.B.16. Democratic Transitions: The Portuguese Case.  Published in Comparative Democratization and Peaceful Change in Single Party Dominant Countries edited by Marco Rimanelli, New York: St. Martin's Press, 1999.
• III.B.15. Presidential Popularity in Central America: Parallels with the United States (with Charles Bundrick).  Published in Political Research Quarterly, vol. 50, no. 4, December 1997.
• III.B.14. From Communism to Democracy: Conciliation or Confrontation? The Case of Nicaragua.  Published in The Political Chronicle, The Journal of the Florida Political Science Association, vol. 5, no. 1, 1993.
• III.B.13. The Rise and Fall of Communism in Nicaragua, Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies. vol. IV, no. 1/2, 1992.
• III.B.12. Resource Mobilization and Political Opportunity in the Nicaraguan Revolution: The Praxis.  Published in The American Journal of Economics and Sociology, vol. 50, no. 1, January 1991.
• III.B.11. Economic and Political Effects on Presidential Popularity in Costa Rica (with Charles Bundrick).  Published in The Journal of Developing Societies, vol. VII, 1991.
• III.B.10. Resource Mobilization and Political Opportunity in the Nicaraguan Revolution: The Theory.  Published in The American Journal of Economics and Sociology, vol. 49, no. 4, October 1990.
• III.B.9. Demographic Correlates of Political Instability in Latin America: The Impact of Population Growth, Density, and Urbanization (with Stephanie Moussalli and Charles Bundrick).  Published in Review of Latin American Studies, vol. 2, nos. 1-2, 1989.
• III.B.8. The Nicaraguan Revolution: From Autocracy to Totalitarian Dictatorship? The Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, vol. I, no. 1/2, 1989.
• III.B.7. An Analysis of Regime Types in Iberoamerica: 1973-1983.  Published in The Journal of Developing Societies, vol. IV, fasc. 2, July-October 1988.
• III.B.6. Fiscal Expansion and Political Instability in the Iberic-Latin Region (with S. D. Moussalli and C. M. Bundrick).  Published in Public Choice, vol. 59, no. 3, 1988.
• III.B.5. Fiscal Policy, the Military, and Political Stability in Iberoamerica.  Published in Behavioral Science, vol. 31, no. 4, October 1986.
• III.B.4. A Micro-Political Explanation of the 1979 Nicaraguan Revolution (with Richard Heggen).  Published in Latin American Research Review, vol. XVII, no. 2, 1982.
• III.B.3. Legitimacy, Coercion, and Scope: An Expansion Path Analysis Applied to Five Central American Countries and Cuba (with Richard Heggen).  Published in Behavioral Science, vol. 26, no. 2, April 1981.
• III.B.2. Authority, Scope, and Force: An Analysis of Five Central American Countries.  Published in Public Choice, vol. 35, 1980.
• III.B.1. A Tale of Two Sites: Political Structure and Policy Performance in Costa Rica and El Salvador.  Published by the Institute of Latin American Studies, Technical Paper Series 12, 1977.

IV. Book Reviews

• IV.A.9. A Review of Inside the Cuban Revolution.  Fidel Castro and the Cuban Underground, by Julia E. Sweig. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2002.  Cuban Affairs.  Quarterly Electronic Journal, Volume 1, Issue 4, 2006.
• IV.A.8. Review of Cuba The Morning After: Confronting Castro's Legacy , by Mark Falcoff, Washington, D.C., The AEI Press, 2003.  Published in Cuban Affairs.  Quarterly Electronic Journal, vol. 1, no. 1, January 2006 ( www.cubanaffairsjournal.org )

• IV.A.7. Review of Juan J. López, Democracy Delayed, Baltimore and London: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 2002

• IV.A.6. Review of Mary A. Clark, Gradual Economic Reform in Latin America. The Costa Rican Experience, Albany: State University of New York Press, 2001.  Published in Perspectives on Politics, 2003.
• IV.A.5. Review of Yvon Grenier, The Emergence of Insurgency in El Salvador: Ideology and Political Will, Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press, 1999.
• IV.A.4. Review of Mark Everingham, Revolution and the Multiclass Coalition in Nicaragua, American Political Science Review, vol. 91, no. 3, September 1997.
• IV.A.3. The Rise and Fall of Violence Theories,  A review of Theories of Civil Violence by James Rule.  Published in The American Journal of Economics and Sociology, vol. 51, no. 1, January 1992.
• IV.A.2. Review of Armando Valladares, Against All Hope: The Prison Memoirs of Armando Valladares, New York: Knopf, 1986.
• IV.A.1. "Revolutionary" Facism, A Review of Jorge Edwards, Persona Non Grata, The Libertarian Forum, January - February 1980.

V. Latin Americanists

The items included in this section are highly critical of the Latin American Studies Association or of individual Latin Americanists. No doubt these publications made me persona non grata in certain circles.  I refer those who would wonder why I chose to spend some of my time and academic capital in this manner to "On Becoming an American Political Scientist."

V.A. ARTICLES

• V.A.4. Cuba's Ranking in the Fitzgibbon Democracy Surveys: Reflecting a Leftist Bias?  Cuban Affairs Quarterly Electronic Journal, vol. 2, April 2007.
• V.A.3. Review of Yvon Grenier, The Emergence of Insurgency in El Salvador: Ideology and Political Will, Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press, 1999.
• V.A.2. Dictatorships and Double Standards:  The Latin American Studies Association on Cuba This is a slightly revised an updated version of a monograph of the same title published by The Endowment for Cuban American Studies (Miami, FL: Paper #13).
• V.A.1. The Latin American Studies Association vs. the United States : The Verdict of History Published in Academic Questions, vol. 7, no. 3, Summer 1994.

V.B. OP-EDS

• V.B.7. LASA Leftists Proven Wrong by the People, Published in The Times of The Americas, March 21, 1990.
• V.B.6. Chilling Details From Nicaragua's Universities, Published in The Times of The Americas, November 2-16, 1988.
• V.B.5. LASA Line on Central America Questioned, Published in The Times of The Americas, January 28, 1987.
• V.B.4. Sandinista Goals Were Evident Long Ago, Published in The Times of The Americas, March 5, 1986.
• V.B.3. Tourists Duped by Sandinistas, Published in The Times of The Americas, October 9, 1985.
• V.B.2. Twisted Statistics, Published in The Orange County Register, December 1, 1985.
• V.B.1. The Nicaraguan Election, Published in Commentary, vol. 80, no. 6, December, 1985.

VI. Letters to the Editor and Newspaper Articles

• VI.A.6. Jefferson vs. Hamilton Redux. The debate over ObamaCare brings to mind an old dispute. tcsdaily.com (August 13, 2009).
• VI.A.5. A Case Study of Anti-Cuban-American Editorializing: The Pensacola News Journal on Elián González, October 2001.
• VI.A.4. Does Pensacola Want to do Business with Castro?
• VI.A.3. Debunking Overpopulation Dogmas
• VI.A.2. Desmintiendo Dogmas Demográficos
• VI.A.1. The Undisputable Achievement of the Cuban Revolution