Release Date:  February 20 , 2004

CHARTER QUESTION RESULTS ONLY

The College of Business at the University of West Florida, in cooperation with The Listener Group, a Gulf Breeze, Florida, marketing research firm, has established a Household Panel representing the Pensacola Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). The MSA consists of Escambia and Santa Rosa counties. This release reports the results of the second administration of the panel.  The first panel administration results were reported in November, 2003.  Plans are to survey panel members on a regular basis.

During February 2004 , panel members were asked a series of questions.  Since some of the topics were applicable only to one county (i.e. Charter government in Escambia County), separate questions were asked of panel members depending upon their county of residence.  All panel members were asked if they voted in the last Presidential election; the frequency with which they called, wrote or personally visited with their County Commissioner; their choice for President. Escambia County panel members were ALSO asked: their awareness of Charter Government; awareness of the March 9^th vote on Charter Government; their level of understanding of Charter Government; and how they would vote if voting on the day they were surveyed on the Charter Government proposal.  Santa Rosa panel members were asked: three questions dealing with their opinions on business ethics situations.

The questions came from several sources. First, everyone involved with the panel believed it would be interesting to learn presidential voting preferences during the time period of primaries in the Democratic party.  Second, several persons with the media as well as local townspeople and civic leaders thought it would be appropriate to measure issues relating to Charter Government since a voter referendum on Charter was coming up on March 9^th. Panel Co-Directors Ronald F. Bush and Greg Martin sought the input of Wynn Teasley, a UWF Professor of Political Science who is knowledgeable of the history of Charter government proposals in Escambia County, to generate objective and unbiased questions dealing with Charter awareness and intentions. In addition, Mr. Cooper Yates of Great Southern Advertising, provided input on these and other issues collected from business and civic leaders in the community.  Santa Rosa panel questions on business ethics were added at the request of Stephen J. Conroy, a UWF Economist who is conducting research on the topic of business ethics.  Finally, demographic questions were added to provide additional insights on present and future issues. Note that other demographic questions have already been collected on panel members.

Finally, the panel responded to a series of questions designed to provide a Pensacola Metropolitan Statistical Area analogue of the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/), a key national economic indicator similar to the Conference Board’s Index of Consumer Confidence.  Also, data collected allow for the calculation of the Index of Consumer Expectations and the Index of Current Economic Conditions. These indexes complement the Index of Consumer Sentiment.  MSA analogues of these two indexes will be released when the Index of Consumer Sentiment is released at a later date. Plans are to ask these same questions each quarter. See the report of the results of the first panel administration for an analysis of these questions for the November, 2003 and Consumer Sentiment (Dec 03).

Participating in this, Administration II of the panel, were 353 panel members from Escambia County, 135 members from Santa Rosa County.  The total number of active panel members at present is 622.  This represents a response rate of 78 percent. Note: the total number of panel members is calculated as those who were active for either the first or second panel administration.  Panel membership changes daily as panel members drop out and more are recruited.  Recruiting new panel members is a continuous process.

The margin of error for the current survey is estimated to be plus or minus 5 percent. This means that if we administered this survey 100 times, we would expect the results to differ by no more than plus or minus 5 percent from the results reported here in at least 95 out of the 100 surveys.

For some questions the margin of error is more precise than 5 percent.  The question asking for "how a panel member would vote on the Charter proposal," for example, is near plus or minus 4 percent.  For other questions, the margin of error is higher than 5 percent.

Here are the questions from Panel Survey II (charter government questions) and basic results are shown.

NOTE THAT ONLY CHARTER RELATED QUESTIONS FROM PANEL ADMINISTRATION II ARE INCLUDED IN THIS RELEASE. DATA FOR OTHER QUESTIONS WILL BE POSTED SEPARATELY.  THANK YOU.

Charter Government Proposal

A total of four questions were asked dealing with the Charter Government proposal for Escambia County .  Each of these questions and the panel data results are shown below.

1.  Have you heard or read about a method for County Government called Charter Government?

Basic Interpretation:Almost three quarters of the panel members responding have heard or read about Charter Government.  This level of awareness will likely increase as interest groups publicize the upcoming vote on the Charter proposal.

2.  How well would you say that you understand the concept of Charter Government for Florida Counties?

Basic Interpretation:  A relatively small percentage of the responding panel members feel they understand the concept of Charter "very well."  About 42 percent state they do not understand it at all.  However, we should look at this percentage among only those who already stated that they had heard or read about Charter.  See below.

Note: This table includes only those who said they had either heard or read about Charter government.

Basic Interpretation: These data tell us that understanding "very well" improves only a small amount even among those who state they have already heard or read something about Charter.  bout 80 percent of those who have read or heard about still state some level of not understanding the concept.  These data are not surprising given the concept of Charter government is not intuitive and may be presented as complex. 

3.  Did you know the voters of Escambia County will have an opportunity to vote for or against a proposal for Charter Government in Escambia County in an election scheduled for March 9^th?

Note: This table includes only those who said they had either heard or read about Charter government.

Basic Interpretation: Among those who said they had heard or read something about Charter three quarters of them are aware of the upcoming March 9^th vote. 

If you were going to vote today on the proposal to adopt a Charter Government for Escambia County, how would you vote? 

Basic Interpretation: With all 352 Escambia County panel member respondents included, the majority of responses were "undecided."  There is a slightly higher percentage of those "Against" Charter than "For" Charter.  The following table shows the answer to this question reported for those who stated they had heard or read something about Charter.  See below.

Among those who said they had read or heard something about Charter AND who also stated that they understand Charter "very well," the results of their voting intentions are reported below:

Charter Vote Associations with Other Variables

In November of 2003, Panel members rated the performance of their respective county governments.  191 Panel members from Escambia County who rated county government performance last November also participated in the current survey.  Interestingly, there seems to be little correspondence between their ratings of county government performance and their position on Charter government.  About 68 percent gave county government negative ratings in November, yet in February only 21 percent of those were FOR Charter government, while 23 percent were AGAINST, with 56 percent undecided.

Panel members’ position on Charter government has a relationship with their self-reported level of formal educational attainment.  Those with less than a college Bachelor’s degree tend to be more AGAINST Charter.  Those with Master’s degrees or higher tend to be FOR Charter government